College Hoops offseason winners and losers
College Hoops winners & losers. What’s not to love?
I guess it makes sense to write about college basketball winners & losers rather than just talk to myself about them. A few different things go into what I deem winners & losers. The main one is players leaving, another is lack of adding players to replace outgoing talent — or just not loving the moves a team made. It’s worth nothing, things can change quickly, but figured I could air my thoughts out.
Winners:
Alabama: The top offseason winner resides in Tuscaloosa. Fresh off its first final four berth in April, the Crimson Tide will look to capture its first preseason AP No. 1 ranking in 2024-25. The Tide return national POY candidate Mark Sears (21.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.0 apg), forward Grant Nelson (11.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg) and sharpshooter Latrell Wrightsell (8.9 ppg, 40% from 3) as starters from last year. Rylan Griffen and Nick Pringle left in the portal, but the Tide more than made up for the losses.
Adding Cliff Omoruyi (10.4 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.9 bpg at Rutgers) will add a shot-swatting presence the Tide lacked a year ago, while Houston Mallette (14 ppg, 41% from 3) and Chris Youngblood (15.3 ppg, 41% from 3) should make a seamless fit in Nate Oats’s high octane offense.
The Tide are absolutely stacked and deserve the No. 1 ranking.
Middle Tennessee: You know I had to include a few mid-majors here, right? It has to happen. Middle Tennessee is among the biggest winners at the mid-major level. The Blue Raiders return a pair of guards in Cam Weston and Jestin Porter at the guard spots along with transfers Essam Mostafa (TCU), Alec Oglesby (Stetson), Jlynn Counter (IUPUI) and Kamari Lands (Arizona State.) Mostafa should be one of the top transfers in Conference USA — the 6-10 big man averaged a double-double two seasons ago at Coastal Carolina. He'll aid Middle Tennessee into returning to contention in CUSA.
Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets have a very solid chance at finishing top five in the ACC and making the tournament for the first time in Damon Stoudamire's tenure in 2025. Georgia Tech returns a pair of sophomore studs, Nait George and Baye Ndongo, along with adding impactful transfers Javian McCollum (13.3 ppg at Oklahoma) and Luke O'Brien (6.7 ppg at Colorado). The pairing of George as the show-runner and McCollum's scoring prowess should make for a potent offense. Plus, Lance Terry will provide much-needed depth behind George & McCollum. Terry missed the entire 2024 year but averaged double digits in 2023. With a strong core, Georgia Tech has enough pieces to push for an NCAA Tourney bid.
Louisville: If any program in the sport could've used Pat Kelsey's infectious energy, it's Louisville. After two disastrous seasons, the Cardinals appear back on track thanks an outstanding run in the portal. Kasean Pryor, Terrence Edwards, Noah Waterman, J'Vonne Hadley, and Chucky Hepburn all started for teams that won 20+ games, while Hadley and Edwards started for teams that won an NCAA Tournament game. Having winning experience should help build a program and culture at Louisville.
Kelsey wants an up-tempo style with a skilled five-man who can dribble, pass & shoot. Pryor will serve that role for Louisville, while Edwards likely serves as the team's go-to scoring option. The key here could be two other transfers: Koren Johnson, a smooth-scoring guard from Washington, and sophomore big James Scott, who followed Kelsey from Charleston. Scott offers needed length and athleticism on the interior when facing better bigs. Louisville should have NCAA Tournament expectations in 2025. That's different from the past few years, so it's a welcome sight for the devoted fans in the Yum! Center
Kansas State: I’ll preface my Kansas State thoughts with this — adding Coleman Hawkins would be the icing on top for an outstanding offseason — and he already visited the Little Apple this weekend, already bringing some juice to the K-State/KU rivalry in the process.
The Wildcats lost a pair of 14 PPG scorers in Arthur Kaluma and Cam Carter, but made significant improvements in general.
While some question whether Dug McDaniel benefitted from empty calorie stats, I’ll dispel that theory. He scored 33 points in losses to Florida and Oregon on close to 50% shooting in both games. Sure, Michian lost. Not because of McDaniel.
Michigan wasn’t bad because of McDaniel — he was one of the few bright spots. He averaged 16 ppg, and 4 apg, while putting pressure on the rim using his next level quickness, which should lead to clean looks fortransfer shooters Max Jones (38% from 3 at Cal State Fullerton) and Brendan Hausen (38% from 3 at Nova.)
With or without Hawkins, Kansas State added two interior starters with shot-blocking specialist Ugonna Onyenso (2.8 bpg at Kentucky) and All-SOCON first teamer Achor Achor, who scored 23 points in an NCAA Tourney loss to Kansas.
Kansas State improved across the board, and should return to the NCAA Tournament. That’s an offseason winner in my eyes.
James Madison: After winning 31 games and an NCAA Tournament game, Mark Byington left for the Vanderbilt job. Once that happens, one of two things can happen: Either it’s a total rebuild for a new coach, or the new coach, in this case Preston Spradlin brings in a ton of talent to keep the team on track.
Spradlin continued his sharp recruiting by adding — Mark Freeman (averaged 15 ppg in 22-23) and high-upside wing, Eddie Ricks III (7.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg.) Freeman should content for Sun Belt POY as he’ll have the ball often and is familiar in Spradlin’s offensive system.
One of the keys to sustained success for Spradlin at Morehead State was shooting surrounding his elite guards. Justin Taylor (38% from 3 at Cuse) and 6-7 Luke Anderson (19 ppg, 40% from 3 at Florida Southern should benefit from Freeman and versatile wing AJ Smith handling the ball and dishing to shooters.
No roster is complete without a couple bigs guys to defend and rebound, which is where Ebenzer Dowuona (GA Tech) and Elijah Hutchins-Everett (Seton Hall) should make their mark.
It won’t be a rebuild of any kind at JMU, it’ll contend for another Sun Belt title in 2025.
Grand Canyon: Grand Canyon won 30 games and secured an NCAA Tournament win for the first time ever last year, and now should vie for a national ranking. The Lopes return four of their five starters, including WAC POY, Tyon Grant-Foster (21 ppg, 6.7 rpg) and dynamic complimentary scorer Ray Harrison (13.5 ppg.) The only impactful piece Grand Canyon lost is Gabe McGlothan, who provided a ton of effort and intensity on defense. While JaKobe Coles (10 ppg at TCU) is more of an offensive-centric player, he’ll form a nice interior tandem with defensive-minded players Lok Wur, Duke Brennan and 7-footer Dennis Evans (Louisville.) The best true mid-major team in college hoops is Grand Canyon, undoubtedly
Iowa: The Hawkeyes won 19 games and made the NIT, but the season felt like a transitional year. It was the first time in three years that an Iowa player didn’t earn All-American honors, but it allowed an exciting trio to flourish. Standout scorers Payton Sandfort (16.4 ppg), Josh Dix (8.9 ppg) and burgeoning sophomore big Owen Freeman (10.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg) is the type of trio Iowa can rely on to not miss the NCAA Tourney for back-to-back seasons. The key is point guard play, as Morehead State transfer Drew Thelwell and sophomore Brock Harding replace outgoing starter Tony Perkins, who left for Missouri. If Harding and Thelwell can create advantageous shots for the go-to trio, then Iowa should have a very successful season
Losers:
Marquette: Marquette did return Kam Jones, who posted 17.2 ppg, en route to an all-conference selection, and should earn preseason Big East POY honors. Departing is Tyler Kolek, a multi-time first team All-Big East selection, and star interior player also Ighodaro. I figured Marquette would dive into the portal to find more experienced pieces to replace the outgoing stars, but that’s not the case.
The Golden Eagles return five of their top seven players from a team that lost to NC State in the Sweet 16. On the surface, returning the lionshare of contributors from a second-weekend team is very positive. On the other hand, Marquette kept a seven man rotation once Sean Jones got injured, and the second and third returning scorers are 6-8 stretch four David Joplin and Josh Hart reincarnate, Stevie Mitchell. Both of which are highly productive players in their own regard. Are they top options for a top three Big East team? I’m more skeptical.
The larger issue for me is Marquette’s choice of standing pat in the portal. I’m not saying it’s the wrong approach, but it’s fairly uncommon in this day and age. It puts more pressure on former top-100 prospects from the 2023 class, Tre Norman and Zaide Lowery, who have to make seismic improvements.
Marquette should remain one of the top defensive teams in college hoops — which is nothing new for Shaka Smart. I just don’t know how Marquette responds when/if defenses pressure Jones and force others to beat them in a half-court offensive set.
I have zero doubts about Marquette making the NCAA Tournament, but I don’t see an upper-echelon Big East team from a talent perspective.
Florida State: After missing two consecutive NCAA Tournaments, it felt like an offseason Florida' State had to come out of as clear winners. That wasn't the case. Instead, the Seminoles lost their six of its top seven scorers, including Jalen Warley, Baba Miller, and Cam Cohren.
Returning Jamir Watkins is probably the biggest move Florida State could've made this off-season, and that looked more like a dream than reality up until a few days ago. Watkins hit the portal before announcing he'd return for another season. The 6-7 senior wing enjoyed a breakout season, averaging 15.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.8 apg in 33 games. He should have the ball often since Florida State's guard corps look pretty brutal.
The Noles incoming portal class is pretty medicore, adding Jerry Deng (10.1 ppg at Hampton), Bostyn Holt (12.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.1 apg at South Dakota) Justin Thomas (UTSA) topped off with JUCO transfer Malique Ewin on the interior. Deng is the upside play of the group. At 6-9, Deng is highly athletic and shot 39% from 3 in his freshman campaign. He's the type of player Hamilton won with during FSU's strong success in the mid-2010's.
I can't see Florida State escaping the bottom three-or-four of the ACC this season. Given the other teams' off-season successes, the Seminoles look a step behind.
Villanova: Similar to the hardships Florida State is facing, Villanova still needs to figure out a winning formula in the NIL, missing back-to-back NCAA Tournaments. Returning Eric Dixon saved Villanova from having the worst offseason late at the high-major level. Dixon is awesome and could lead the Big East in scoring this year—he posted 16.6 ppg and 6.4 rpg and will have a larger usage in his final season.
Dixon and Miami transfer Wooga Poplar should be Villanova's top-two scoring options. Poplar started the season as a possible All-ACC candidate before inconsistency and injury took him off that trajectory.
Initially, it appeared the Wildcats would combine All-A10 guards Max Shulga and Jhamir Brickus in their back-court -- until Shulga left Villanova at the alter and returned to VCU. Shulga changing his mind leaves Jhamir Brickus (La Salle) and Tyler Perkins (Penn) as the lone guard transfer additions for Kyle Neptune — who lost Mark Armstrong and Justin Moore to the pros.
I don't see Villanova pushing for an NCAA Tournament bid, which is enough to put them in the losing section.
Minnesota: This one hits a little closer to home since I coined Minnesota as a surefire top-25 team — assuming everyone returned. That's an awful assumption in this era of college sports.
Losing players in the portal era is nothing new, even when they announce a return for another season. It's just part of the game. Elijah Hawkins spurned Minnesota for Texas Tech after announcing he'll return for another season. In addition to Hawkins, the Gophers lost five of their top eight scorers, including Hawkins, Cam Christie, Pharrell Payne, and Joshua Ola-Joseph.
While Dawson Garcia (17.6 ppg) is one of the top players in the Big Ten, he lost most of the help around him besides Mike Mitchell Jr (10.3 ppg.) The Gophers traded the outgoing starters for less productive players in guards Caleb Williams (20 ppg at Macalaster), Lu'Cye Patterson (14.6 ppg at Charlotte), Brennan Rigsby (6.1 ppg at Oregon), Femi Odukale (10.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 3.0 APG New Mexico State.) and forwards Trey Edmonds (7 ppg, 5.8 rpg at UTSA) and Frank Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 11.6 rpg at Canisius.)
In a pivotal season and one that looked promising, Minnesota looks to be in rough shape in 2024-25.
Colorado: I don't quite understand the offseason plan for Colorado. It’s not surprising the Buffs lost KJ Simpson, Tristan Da Silva, and Cody Williams to the draft. What I didn't see happening was losing J'Vonne Hadley, Eddie Lampkin, and Luke O'Brien to the portal. None of those guys are stars, but all could start for Louisville, Cuse, and GA Tech, respectively.
Losing three high-major caliber starting pieces is challenging when replacing three other NBA-caliber players also depart. Now, Colorado's top returning scorer is Julian Hammond, and the only incoming transfers are Andrej Jakimovski (9.7 ppg 5.6 rpg at Wazzu), Trevor Baskin (D2 All-American) and Elijah Malone (NAIA POY.)
Sure, I like adding two highly productive players from lower levels, but the Big 12 is a different beast. I don’t see Colorado possessing enough talent to evade the bottom portion of the conference standings. Colorado went from having bonafide NBA talent to having questionable Big 12 talent in one season.
I greatly respect Tad Boyle's coaching ability, but this roster isn't good enough to finish better than 13th — at best in the Big 12.
Memphis: Once David Jones surprisingly left his name in the draft, my opinion on Memphis changed drastically. He was the best player for the Tigers last year — by far — and now Memphis could be among the worst shooting teams in the sport. Incoming is guards PJ Haggerty (21 ppg at Tulsa) and Tyrese Hunter (11 ppg, 4 apg) will provide stability in the Tigers backcourt, but neither are strong shooters. The way Memphis addressed the front court left much of the same concerns. None of the incoming bigs can shoot. Tyreek Smith (8.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg at SMU), Moussa Cisse (4.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg at Ole Miss) and Dain Dainja (6.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg) each do different things. Smith and Cisse fit the defense mold that Penny Hardaway likes from his bigs, while Dainja is a post-oriented scorer. At least Colby Rogers (16 ppg, 40% from 3 at Wichita State) is a shooter, but he won’t have a ton of help there.
Memphis just feels the same as usual. yeah, there’s talent but the pieces don’t really fit, and they’ll have some ups-and-downs.
San Diego: It was a very tough offseason for San Diego, who went 18-15 last year and 7-9 in WCC play. The portal was no friend of the Toreros, as Deuce Turner (15.5 ppg), Wayne McKinney (13.5 ppg), PJ Hayes (10.5 ppg), and Kevin Patton Jr (9.8 ppg) all found new schools. Another issue is San Diego’s lack of portal activity. Just because a team’s best players left isn’t a death sentence, per se. The larger issue is not replacing them with proven talent — and that compounds the losses. USD’s brought in two transfers — Kody Clouet, a sharpshooting wing from the D2 level, and local JUCO transfer Kevin Bradley Jr. For a once promising team if pieces remained in place, San Diego now looks destined to finish near the WCC’s bottom half.